Hillerod 5-2 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.26
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.15
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
13%
4.19
X/2
11%
10.1
X/X
14%
5.24
2/1
8%
23.3
2/2
7%
8.19
2/X
6%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -11%
1.84/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.59
-3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.8 Crosses 13.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Roskilde
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 0.41
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
361 Passes 347
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
01.03.2025 Roskilde Roskilde 1-2 HT 1-2 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
02.08.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 2-0 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
05.06.2021 Hillerod Hillerod 2-3 HT 2-1 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
25.09.2020 Roskilde Roskilde 0-1 HT 0-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
5-2
AWAY Roskilde
3.85 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
538 Passes 444
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod swept aside Roskilde 5-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hillerod as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hillerod had 54% of the ball to Roskilde's 46%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 3.85 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hillerod had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Hillerod and 1.00 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Roskilde?

Hillerod 5-2 Roskilde in the Denmark 1st Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 50%, draw 26%, Roskilde 24%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hillerod), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hillerod) ✓ BTTS Yes
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