Velez Mostar 3-3 GOSK Gabela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-9.0pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.8pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Mostar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY GOSK Gabela EU Bookmakers 16%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.84/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/2.30
-2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Mostar
1W-1D-0L
AWAY GOSK Gabela
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
03.11.2023 GOSK Gabela GOSK Gabela 0-4 HT 0-1 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
06.08.2023 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 0-0 HT 0-0 GOSK Gabela GOSK Gabela BOSN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Mostar
3-3
AWAY GOSK Gabela
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Velez Mostar vs GOSK Gabela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Mostar and GOSK Gabela shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Velez Mostar at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Velez Mostar had 66% of the ball to GOSK Gabela's 34%, shots finished 18-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Velez Mostar had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Velez Mostar and 0.00 for GOSK Gabela.

What was the final score of Velez Mostar vs GOSK Gabela?

Velez Mostar 3-3 GOSK Gabela in the Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Mostar vs GOSK Gabela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Mostar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Velez Mostar 58%, draw 26%, GOSK Gabela 16%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Velez Mostar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BOSN More Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League
20 May 2024
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