Kalmar 2-1 Djurgarden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
46%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.52
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 27% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.3
1/2
8%
23.6
1/X
5%
14.35
X/1
11%
8.44
X/2
18%
4.23
X/X
13%
4.95
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.4
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+6.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
45%
Away Win
51%
-5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.5pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 55%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
0.91/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.24
-26% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +61%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
16.1 Crosses 19.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Djurgarden
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.11 xG 1.05
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
554 Passes 329
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 2-1 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
08.05.2023 Djurgarden Djurgarden 3-1 HT 2-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
14.08.2022 Djurgarden Djurgarden 3-2 HT 2-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
22.05.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
12.03.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 0-2 HT 0-2 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇK
23.10.2021 Djurgarden Djurgarden 3-2 HT 3-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
2-1
AWAY Djurgarden
1.19 xG 2.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 11
290 Passes 375
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs Djurgarden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar squeezed past Djurgarden 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Djurgarden at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kalmar had 44% of the ball to Djurgarden's 56%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.19 to 2.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Djurgarden.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Djurgarden led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kalmar and 2.00 for Djurgarden.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs Djurgarden?

Kalmar 2-1 Djurgarden in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs Djurgarden?

Before kick-off our model rated an Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 30%, draw 24%, Djurgarden 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Djurgarden) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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