Avai 0-1 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Jul 2024

Avai
0-1 HT 0-0
Ceara
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
Over 2.5
37%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.8pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -21%
1.14/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.19
-4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
21.5 Crosses 18.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ceara
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.18 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
258 Passes 312
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2023 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
29.06.2023 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
10.11.2022 Avai Avai 2-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
20.07.2022 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 1-0 Avai Avai BR1
13.10.2019 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR1
28.05.2019 Avai Avai 1-2 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
0-1
AWAY Ceara
0.33 xG 0.67
68% Ball Possession 32%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
567 Passes 217
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avai vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara nicked a narrow win over Avai 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Ceara made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Avai had 68% of the ball to Ceara's 32%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.33 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avai and 0.67 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Avai vs Ceara?

Avai 0-1 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avai 39%, draw 31%, Ceara 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Avai) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avai) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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