CRB 1-0 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Jul 2024

CRB
1-0 HT 0-0
Ituano
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.75
6+ Goals
8%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
65%
-12.4pp
30%
Draw
22%
+7.8pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CRB EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.52/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.61
-20% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
18.3 Crosses 14.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CRB
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Ituano
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 1.19
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 245
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
22.06.2023 CRB CRB 2-2 HT 2-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
02.10.2022 Ituano Ituano 1-0 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
18.06.2022 CRB CRB 1-1 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CRB
1-0
AWAY Ituano
1.15 xG 0.64
73% Ball Possession 27%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 9
466 Passes 124
86% Pass Accuracy 61%
27 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH CRB vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CRB squeezed past Ituano 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had CRB as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CRB had 73% of the ball to Ituano's 27%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.15 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ituano led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for CRB and 1.00 for Ituano.

What was the final score of CRB vs Ituano?

CRB 1-0 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CRB vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a CRB win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split CRB 53%, draw 30%, Ituano 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CRB), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CRB) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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