Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.2pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 33%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.00/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/0.63
-7% / +114% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +83%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
0 Corners 5
18.02.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
18.08.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-0
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
51% Ball Possession 49%
2 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv squeezed past Arda Kardzhali 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiv Plovdiv found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 51% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 49%, shots finished 2-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.50 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 38%, draw 25%, Arda Kardzhali 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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