Melgar 5-2 Cesar Vallejo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.27
Draw
23%
5.15
Away
20%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.33
No
58%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
75%
-17.4pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.7pp
19%
Away Win
9%
+10.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.1pp
58%
BTTS No
61%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 11%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
2.04/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.89
+2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +25%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 74%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.8
22.3 Crosses 12.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.46 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
271 Passes 271
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 3-2 HT 2-1 Melgar Melgar PER
12.08.2023 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 1-2 HT 1-2 Melgar Melgar PER
01.06.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-2 HT 1-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
24.09.2022 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 3-2 HT 2-2 Melgar Melgar PER
18.04.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
25.07.2021 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-1 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
5-2
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
3.08 xG 0.49
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
239 Passes 182
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Cesar Vallejo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar ran out comfortable winners over Cesar Vallejo 5-2. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melgar had 54% of the ball to Cesar Vallejo's 46%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 3.08 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Melgar and 1.67 for Cesar Vallejo.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Cesar Vallejo?

Melgar 5-2 Cesar Vallejo in the Peru - Premier League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Cesar Vallejo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Melgar 57%, draw 23%, Cesar Vallejo 19%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
PER More Peru - Premier League
20 Jul 2024
21:00 Cultural San vs Comerciantes Unidos Analysis →