Pogon Siedlce 1-2 Chrobry Glogow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 30% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.7pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chrobry Glogow EU Bookmakers 34%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
0.63/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.44
-56% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Chrobry Glogow
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 3
20.10.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 3-1 HT 2-0 Chrobry Glogow Chrobry Glogow POLK
30.10.2018 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-2 HT 0-2 Chrobry Glogow Chrobry Glogow POLK
29.11.2015 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-0 HT 0-0 Chrobry Glogow Chrobry Glogow POL1
04.04.2015 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-2 HT 0-1 Chrobry Glogow Chrobry Glogow POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1-2
AWAY Chrobry Glogow
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Chrobry Glogow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chrobry Glogow squeezed past Pogon Siedlce 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Siedlce at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 61% of the ball to Chrobry Glogow's 39%, shots finished 18-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 1.25 for Chrobry Glogow.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Chrobry Glogow?

Pogon Siedlce 1-2 Chrobry Glogow in the Poland - 1st Division on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Chrobry Glogow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Siedlce win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 44%, draw 26%, Chrobry Glogow 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Siedlce) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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