FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-10.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.34/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.77
-21% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
413 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
27.4 Crosses 24.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Super Nova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
343 Passes 293
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.05.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
01.10.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.07.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
18.05.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-2 HT 2-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.04.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
1-0
AWAY Super Nova
2.28 xG 0.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
26 Total Shots 0
7 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 0
372 Passes 253
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
41 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava nicked a narrow win over Super Nova 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FS Jelgava as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 57% of the ball to Super Nova's 43%, shots finished 26-0, expected goals 2.28 to 0.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FS Jelgava's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.00 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 47%, draw 24%, Super Nova 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✗ BTTS Yes
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