Lübeck 1-2 Weiche Flensburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 20 Aug 2024

📅20/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lübeck EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Weiche Flensburg EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.57/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.11
-7% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +43%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lübeck
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Weiche Flensburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2023 Lübeck Lübeck 2-0 HT 1-0 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg ALMBÖL
22.10.2022 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Lübeck Lübeck ALMBÖL
05.11.2021 Lübeck Lübeck 0-2 HT 0-1 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg ALMBÖL
27.08.2021 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Lübeck Lübeck ALMBÖL
07.09.2019 Lübeck Lübeck 2-0 HT 0-0 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lübeck
1-2
AWAY Weiche Flensburg
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weiche Flensburg nicked a narrow win over Lübeck 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lübeck at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lübeck had 55% of the ball to Weiche Flensburg's 45%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Weiche Flensburg led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lübeck and 1.00 for Weiche Flensburg.

What was the final score of Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg?

Lübeck 1-2 Weiche Flensburg in the Germany - Regional League on 20/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lübeck vs Weiche Flensburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lübeck win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lübeck 42%, draw 28%, Weiche Flensburg 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lübeck) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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