Al Ahly 0-2 Pharco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Cup, 20 Aug 2024

📅20/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.33
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.27
No
55%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.39
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.3pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.8pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Pharco EU Bookmakers 14%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.77/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.77
-22% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -25%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 72%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.1 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Pharco
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.75 xG 0.92
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
390 Passes 250
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.06.2024 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-1 HT 1-0 Pharco Pharco MSR
14.06.2024 Pharco Pharco 1-2 HT 1-2 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
14.04.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-0 HT 2-0 Pharco Pharco MSR
20.12.2022 Pharco Pharco 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
03.08.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 Pharco Pharco MSR
01.03.2022 Pharco Pharco 1-4 HT 1-3 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Pharco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pharco beat Al Ahly 2-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Al Ahly at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Al Ahly and 0.67 for Pharco.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Pharco?

Al Ahly 0-2 Pharco in the Egypt - Cup on 20/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Pharco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 58%, draw 24%, Pharco 18%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Al Ahly) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MSRK More Egypt - Cup
20 Aug 2024
21:00 Future FC vs ENPPI Analysis →