Al Ahly 2-1 Pharco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 28 Jun 2024

📅28/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.29
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.19
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.19 — our 32% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-13.3pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.6pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+7.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.4pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Pharco EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
1.75/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.28
+14% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +42%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
19.6 Crosses 12.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Pharco
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.95 xG 1.01
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
390 Passes 251
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.06.2024 Pharco Pharco 1-2 HT 1-2 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
14.04.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-0 HT 2-0 Pharco Pharco MSR
20.12.2022 Pharco Pharco 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
03.08.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 Pharco Pharco MSR
01.03.2022 Pharco Pharco 1-4 HT 1-3 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
2-1
AWAY Pharco
0.73 xG 0.46
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
395 Passes 245
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 5
13 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Pharco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly nicked a narrow win over Pharco 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahly had 59% of the ball to Pharco's 41%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.73 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Al Ahly and 0.60 for Pharco.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Pharco?

Al Ahly 2-1 Pharco in the Egypt - Premier League on 28/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Pharco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 59%, draw 22%, Pharco 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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