Paderborn 2-1 Hannover 96 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 28% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.95
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.94
X/2
13%
6.53
X/X
12%
5.3
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
14%
4.34
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Hannover 96 EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.88/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.57
+4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.5 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Hannover 96
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.48 xG 1.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
405 Passes 293
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 3-2 HT 3-2 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
03.12.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 1-0 HT 0-0 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2
11.02.2023 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 3-4 HT 2-2 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
09.12.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 1-0 HT 1-0 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 HAZ
06.08.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 4-2 HT 1-2 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2
24.04.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 3-0 HT 2-0 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
2-1
AWAY Hannover 96
2.42 xG 1.41
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 11
306 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 42
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Hannover 96
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn squeezed past Hannover 96 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Paderborn found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Paderborn had 50% of the ball to Hannover 96's 50%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 2.42 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Paderborn and 1.33 for Hannover 96.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Hannover 96?

Paderborn 2-1 Hannover 96 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Hannover 96?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 39%, draw 26%, Hannover 96 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ BTTS No
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