Orsha 3-2 Shakhtyor Petrikov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - 1st Division, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orsha EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtyor Petrikov EU Bookmakers 23%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.30/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.89
-44% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orsha
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.10.2023 Shakhtyor Petrikov Shakhtyor Petrikov 2-1 HT 2-0 Orsha Orsha BLR1
03.06.2023 Orsha Orsha 3-2 HT 0-2 Shakhtyor Petrikov Shakhtyor Petrikov BLR1
10.10.2021 Orsha Orsha 0-0 HT 0-0 Shakhtyor Petrikov Shakhtyor Petrikov BLR1
25.07.2021 Shakhtyor Petrikov Shakhtyor Petrikov 1-1 HT 0-0 Orsha Orsha BLR1
06.05.2021 Orsha Orsha 0-3 HT 0-1 Shakhtyor Petrikov Shakhtyor Petrikov BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orsha
3-2
AWAY Shakhtyor Petrikov
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orsha vs Shakhtyor Petrikov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orsha edged past Shakhtyor Petrikov 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orsha as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Orsha had 51% of the ball to Shakhtyor Petrikov's 49%, shots finished 13-11.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Shakhtyor Petrikov led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orsha and 1.60 for Shakhtyor Petrikov.

What was the final score of Orsha vs Shakhtyor Petrikov?

Orsha 3-2 Shakhtyor Petrikov in the Belarus - 1st Division on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orsha vs Shakhtyor Petrikov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orsha win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Orsha 53%, draw 25%, Shakhtyor Petrikov 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orsha), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orsha) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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