VPS 1-1 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
44%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
44%
Away Win
52%
-8.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 56%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.60/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.95
+17% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 83%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
14.6 Crosses 20.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
2W-0D-4L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.78 xG 2.06
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
287 Passes 439
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 VPS VPS 1-3 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
17.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
08.10.2023 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 2-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
19.04.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
15.04.2023 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
16.07.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-1
AWAY HJK Helsinki
2.05 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
305 Passes 370
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH VPS vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS and HJK Helsinki couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was HJK Helsinki at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, VPS had 46% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 54%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.05 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for VPS and 2.33 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of VPS vs HJK Helsinki?

VPS 1-1 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split VPS 32%, draw 24%, HJK Helsinki 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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