VPS 1-3 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 29% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.48
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
12%
6.43
X/2
16%
4.87
X/X
16%
4.86
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.04
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 46%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.43/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.16
+25% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 82%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
17.0 Crosses 17.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
2W-0D-4L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.71 xG 1.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
292 Passes 436
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
08.10.2023 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 2-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
19.04.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
15.04.2023 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
16.07.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
18.04.2022 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-3
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.06 xG 2.99
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 10
267 Passes 448
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH VPS vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki got the better of VPS 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day HJK Helsinki made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, VPS had 40% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 60%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 1.06 to 2.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for VPS and 2.00 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of VPS vs HJK Helsinki?

VPS 1-3 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split VPS 33%, draw 27%, HJK Helsinki 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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