IFK Mariehamn 2-1 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.91
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.67
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
12%
5.3
X/2
10%
5.63
X/X
15%
4.2
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
18%
4.01
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.03/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.56
-17% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
16.9 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Oulu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.17 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
240 Passes 439
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.09.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
09.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
03.06.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
28.09.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-4 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
23.07.2022 Oulu Oulu 3-1 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
2-1
AWAY Oulu
5.28 xG 1.09
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 10
382 Passes 258
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
41 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn squeezed past Oulu 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; IFK Mariehamn found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 58% of the ball to Oulu's 42%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 5.28 to 1.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold IFK Mariehamn's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 2.67 for Oulu.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs Oulu?

IFK Mariehamn 2-1 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 37%, draw 29%, Oulu 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) ✗ Under 2.5
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