Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.43
6+ Goals
11%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 29% vs market 23.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.32
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
12%
12.7
X/1
19%
5.21
X/2
14%
6.1
X/X
7%
4.64
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
14%
4.14
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +3%
1.48/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.25
+1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
21.0 Crosses 21.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 1.70
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
271 Passes 376
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.09.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-4 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.05.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
22.10.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
24.04.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
31.10.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-2 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.36 xG 0.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 11
363 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin nicked a narrow win over Legia Varşova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 33%) promised a tight game; Pogon Szczecin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 52% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 48%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.36 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 40%, draw 26%, Legia Varşova 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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