Austria Wien 3-2 Ried — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 20 Sep 2025

Austria Wien
3-2 HT 0-2
Ried
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Austria Wien vs Ried Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.09
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 35% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.05
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.89
X/2
12%
6.6
X/X
17%
4.41
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
15%
4.84
2/X
5%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.0pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Austria Wien v Ried — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ried EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.63/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.39
+6% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
22.4 Crosses 13.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Austria Wien vs Ried Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austria Wien
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ried
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 0.93
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
428 Passes 276
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.03.2023 Ried Ried 1-3 HT 1-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
18.09.2022 Austria Wien Austria Wien 3-0 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AVU
23.10.2021 Austria Wien Austria Wien 4-1 HT 2-1 Ried Ried AVU
25.07.2021 Ried Ried 2-1 HT 0-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
21.05.2021 Ried Ried 3-2 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
20.04.2021 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 1-1 Ried Ried AVU

Austria Wien 3-2 Ried — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austria Wien
3-2
AWAY Ried
2.60 xG 1.03
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
219 Passes 146
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Austria Wien vs Ried
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien edged past Ried 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Austria Wien found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Austria Wien had 60% of the ball to Ried's 40%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.60 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Austria Wien's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austria Wien had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Austria Wien and 1.50 for Ried.

What was the final score of Austria Wien vs Ried?

Austria Wien 3-2 Ried in the Austria - Bundesliga on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austria Wien vs Ried?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austria Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Austria Wien 39%, draw 27%, Ried 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austria Wien) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Austria Wien) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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