Salzburg 0-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
19%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
7.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.5
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
20%
4.82
X/2
8%
7.83
X/X
11%
5.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.8
2/2
7%
5.28
2/X
8%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
49%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
19%
Away Win
27%
-7.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.06/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.73
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
300 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 70%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
24.1 Crosses 14.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.70 xG 2.11
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
346 Passes 209
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2 HT 2-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
13.04.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
02.03.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 3-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
06.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-0 HT 2-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
28.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
04.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-4 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
0-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.92 xG 2.42
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 29
5 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 10
288 Passes 263
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz beat Salzburg 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Salzburg carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salzburg had 51% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 49%, shots finished 16-29, expected goals 1.92 to 2.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Salzburg and 3.00 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Salzburg 0-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 56%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 19%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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