Sturm Graz 5-0 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
7.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.96
1/2
6%
21.45
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
12%
7.6
X/2
15%
4.72
X/X
9%
5.64
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
32.0
2/2
24%
2.57
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-2.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 51%
-6% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
0.89/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.43
-7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
271 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 73%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
17.3 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Salzburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.00 xG 1.84
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
196 Passes 267
62% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
04.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-4 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
31.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.02.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
21.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
5-0
AWAY Salzburg
2.80 xG 0.07
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
233 Passes 298
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 4
19 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz ran out comfortable winners over Salzburg 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 46% of the ball to Salzburg's 54%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 2.80 to 0.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.83 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?

Sturm Graz 5-0 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 28%, draw 27%, Salzburg 45%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Salzburg), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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