Salzburg 2-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.79
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.74
X/2
12%
7.09
X/X
10%
4.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.6
2/2
15%
4.9
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
2.03/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.67
+2% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
331 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
12.8 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.67 xG 0.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
254 Passes 201
70% Pass Accuracy 63%
21 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-4 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
31.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.02.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
21.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
23.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
2-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg and Sturm Graz shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Salzburg had 63% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 37%, shots finished 22-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Salzburg and 1.33 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Salzburg 2-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 42%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 33%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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