Salzburg 1-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.56
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.77
X/2
11%
8.14
X/X
11%
5.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.9
2/2
11%
5.87
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -9%
2.19/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.95
+2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
307 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
21.5 Crosses 14.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.75 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 Passes 223
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 3-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
06.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-0 HT 2-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
28.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
04.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-4 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
31.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.02.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
1-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.57 xG 1.16
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
379 Passes 182
80% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Salzburg 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Salzburg had 62% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 38%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.57 to 1.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Salzburg.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Salzburg and 2.17 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Salzburg 1-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 47%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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