Salzburg 3-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.15
Over 2.5
60%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
33%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.24
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 33% vs market 27.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.56
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
16%
4.87
X/2
5%
7.97
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✓
11%
22.1
2/2
12%
5.52
2/X
10%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-2.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.86/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.61
-14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 72%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
22.1 Crosses 14.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.52 xG 1.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
284 Passes 197
73% Pass Accuracy 64%
21 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-0 HT 2-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
28.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
04.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-4 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
31.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.02.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
3-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
3.44 xG 1.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
27 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
428 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg saw off Sturm Graz 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Salzburg as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Salzburg had 58% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 42%, shots finished 27-15, expected goals 3.44 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Salzburg and 2.33 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Salzburg 3-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 49%, draw 28%, Sturm Graz 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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