Sturm Graz vs Salzburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sturm Graz v Salzburg — Team-Based Signals
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sturm Graz 4-2 Salzburg — Actual Match Statistics
Sturm Graz beat Salzburg 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sturm Graz had 40% of the ball to Salzburg's 60%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 2.42 to 1.83.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.67 for Salzburg.
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 4-2 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 41%, draw 28%, Salzburg 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.