Al Nassr 5-1 Al Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.16
Draw
14%
7.13
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.94
Over 2.5
65%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.2
2-3 Goals
33%
2.45
4-5 Goals
31%
2.21
6+ Goals
19%
3.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
30%
X/2
3%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
3%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
82%
-4.0pp
14%
Draw
11%
+2.6pp
8%
Away Win
7%
+1.5pp
35%
Under 2.5
22%
+13.2pp
65%
Over 2.5
78%
-13.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.3pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Riyadh EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.35/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.47
+0% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
452 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 79%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
23.3 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Al Riyadh
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.94 xG 0.84
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
526 Passes 205
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 0-1 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
08.11.2024 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
23.05.2024 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 2-2 HT 2-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
08.12.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-1 HT 2-0 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
5-1
AWAY Al Riyadh
2.98 xG 0.63
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
16 Corners 3
413 Passes 225
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
39 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr ran out comfortable winners over Al Riyadh 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Nassr had 61% of the ball to Al Riyadh's 39%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.98 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Al Nassr and 1.00 for Al Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh?

Al Nassr 5-1 Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 78%, draw 14%, Al Riyadh 8%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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