Al Nassr 2-1 Al Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.96
Over 2.5
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
6.77
2-3 Goals
35%
2.17
4-5 Goals
25%
2.38
6+ Goals
15%
4.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
75%
-11.6pp
21%
Draw
15%
+6.2pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+5.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.4pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Riyadh EU Bookmakers 12%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.25/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.13
+11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +10%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
477 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 79%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
22.0 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Al Riyadh
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.90 xG 0.55
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
535 Passes 202
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 7
29 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2024 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
23.05.2024 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 2-2 HT 2-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
08.12.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-1 HT 2-0 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
2-1
AWAY Al Riyadh
3.07 xG 1.70
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 0
496 Passes 216
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Al Riyadh 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Al Nassr had 67% of the ball to Al Riyadh's 33%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 3.07 to 1.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Nassr's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Nassr and 1.00 for Al Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh?

Al Nassr 2-1 Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 63%, draw 21%, Al Riyadh 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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