Real Zaragoza 1-2 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 20 Oct 2024

Real Zaragoza
1-2 HT 1-1
Almeria
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Real Zaragoza vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.68
No
56%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.49
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 31% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.78
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
16%
4.63
X/2
10%
7.17
X/X
13%
4.73
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
11%
5.15
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.1pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Zaragoza v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Zaragoza EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.40/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.25
+1% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.7 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Real Zaragoza vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Zaragoza
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Almeria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 Passes 381
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.03.2022 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 2-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
11.12.2021 Almeria Almeria 3-0 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
11.04.2021 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 2-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
09.12.2020 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
20.06.2020 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 0-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
10.11.2019 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2

Real Zaragoza 1-2 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Zaragoza
1-2
AWAY Almeria
0.65 xG 1.76
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
389 Passes 268
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 25
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Real Zaragoza vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria nicked a narrow win over Real Zaragoza 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Real Zaragoza at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Zaragoza had 58% of the ball to Almeria's 42%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.65 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Real Zaragoza and 1.33 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Real Zaragoza vs Almeria?

Real Zaragoza 1-2 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Zaragoza vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Zaragoza win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Real Zaragoza 45%, draw 27%, Almeria 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Zaragoza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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