Basel 2-1 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 20 Oct 2024

Basel
2-1
St. Gallen
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2024/2025

Basel vs St. Gallen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 26% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.6
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
16%
4.68
X/2
9%
7.55
X/X
14%
5.45
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
12%
5.04
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Basel v St. Gallen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.58/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.44
-5% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
20.0 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Basel vs St. Gallen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
3W-1D-2L
AWAY St. Gallen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.09 xG 1.94
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
289 Passes 324
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Basel Basel 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
26.11.2023 Basel Basel 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
22.07.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-1 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
14.05.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 6-1 HT 3-0 Basel Basel İSV
12.03.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
01.03.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-2 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSVK

Basel 2-1 St. Gallen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
2-1
AWAY St. Gallen
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Basel vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel squeezed past St. Gallen 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Basel had 51% of the ball to St. Gallen's 49%, shots finished 18-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Basel and 1.67 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Basel vs St. Gallen?

Basel 2-1 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Basel 45%, draw 28%, St. Gallen 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ BTTS Yes
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