Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 20 Oct 2024

Arminia Bielefeld
3-1 HT 0-0
Osnabrück
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Arminia Bielefeld vs Osnabrück Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.79
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.66
X/2
10%
7.08
X/X
13%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
20%
5.01
2/X
8%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+8.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arminia Bielefeld v Osnabrück — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.42/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.57
-12% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
28.4 Crosses 14.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Arminia Bielefeld vs Osnabrück Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.52 xG 0.73
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
575 Passes 262
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.05.2020 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 HT 1-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
07.10.2019 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
18.02.2015 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-4 HT 0-3 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
09.08.2014 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 HT 1-2 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
11.05.2013 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 HT 0-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
17.11.2012 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3

Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Osnabrück — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
3-1
AWAY Osnabrück
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
297 Passes 239
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld saw off Osnabrück 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Arminia Bielefeld made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 55% of the ball to Osnabrück's 45%, shots finished 10-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 0.50 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Osnabrück?

Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Osnabrück in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 37%, draw 27%, Osnabrück 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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