Dynamo Dresden 3-3 Rot-Weiss Essen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 20 Oct 2024

Dynamo Dresden
3-3
Rot-Weiss Essen
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Dynamo Dresden vs Rot-Weiss Essen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
7.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.75 — our 26% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
19%
4.09
X/2
12%
10.45
X/X
10%
6.09
2/1
8%
20.6
2/2
6%
7.37
2/X
9%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.3pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dynamo Dresden v Rot-Weiss Essen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.90/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.43
+4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
373 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
28.6 Crosses 24.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Dynamo Dresden vs Rot-Weiss Essen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dynamo Dresden
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-2 HT 1-2 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
01.10.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 3-1 HT 1-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
08.04.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-1 HT 1-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
15.10.2022 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 HT 1-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
01.04.2005 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 HT 2-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL2
27.10.2004 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-0 HT 1-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL2

Dynamo Dresden 3-3 Rot-Weiss Essen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dynamo Dresden
3-3
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
17 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Dynamo Dresden vs Rot-Weiss Essen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dynamo Dresden and Rot-Weiss Essen couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Dynamo Dresden at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Dynamo Dresden had 64% of the ball to Rot-Weiss Essen's 36%, shots finished 21-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.50 for Rot-Weiss Essen.

What was the final score of Dynamo Dresden vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Dynamo Dresden 3-3 Rot-Weiss Essen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dynamo Dresden vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dynamo Dresden win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Dynamo Dresden 50%, draw 27%, Rot-Weiss Essen 23%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dynamo Dresden), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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