Macarthur 6-1 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 20 Oct 2024

Macarthur
6-1 HT 5-0
Perth Glory
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Perth Glory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.53
No
38%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.02
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
30%
2.75
6+ Goals
15%
7.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.32
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
14%
8.51
X/X
10%
5.96
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.6
2/2
7%
5.61
2/X
10%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
61%
+0.7pp
38%
BTTS No
39%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Perth Glory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
2.10/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.58
-29% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.8 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Macarthur vs Perth Glory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Perth Glory
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.86 xG 1.54
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
331 Passes 441
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
23.12.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-2 HT 0-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.07.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-4 HT 0-3 Macarthur Macarthur AVUK
01.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.12.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 1-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
03.04.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 4-2 HT 1-2 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS

Macarthur 6-1 Perth Glory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
6-1
AWAY Perth Glory
4.06 xG 0.31
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 7
13 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
577 Passes 217
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur ran out comfortable winners over Perth Glory 6-1. Half-time: 5-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Macarthur as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Macarthur had 68% of the ball to Perth Glory's 32%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 4.06 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Macarthur and 1.50 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Perth Glory?

Macarthur 6-1 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 51%, draw 24%, Perth Glory 25%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macarthur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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