Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
9.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.81
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
11%
4.85
X/2
10%
7.03
X/X
10%
5.08
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
11%
4.73
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.2pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 32%
+19% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.63/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.75
+23% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
17.8 Crosses 18.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Western United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.01 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
482 Passes 420
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-0 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
02.12.2023 Western United Western United 0-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.02.2023 Western United Western United 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
13.11.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-3 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
14.05.2022 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.04.2022 Western United Western United 1-4 HT 0-3 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1-1
AWAY Western United
1.45 xG 0.65
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
454 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix and Western United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 53% of the ball to Western United's 47%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.45 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 0.83 for Western United.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Western United?

Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 45%, draw 25%, Western United 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wellington Phoenix), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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