BATE Borisov 3-2 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.9
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 35% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
49%
-12.4pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.0pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+8.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BATE Borisov EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 28%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.25/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.67
+52% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +100%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
282 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BATE Borisov
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0 HT 2-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
12.11.2022 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-2 HT 0-1 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
15.07.2022 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 1-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BATE Borisov
3-2
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH BATE Borisov vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BATE Borisov nicked a narrow win over Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; BATE Borisov found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BATE Borisov had 51% of the ball to Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk's 49%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for BATE Borisov and 1.33 for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk.

What was the final score of BATE Borisov vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

BATE Borisov 3-2 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BATE Borisov vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a BATE Borisov win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split BATE Borisov 36%, draw 31%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BATE Borisov) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BATE Borisov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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