Gomel 1-1 Dnepr Mogilev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.47
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 32% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.5pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gomel EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Dnepr Mogilev EU Bookmakers 17%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.97/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.72
+9% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -40%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
366 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gomel
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Dnepr Mogilev
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
27.05.2024 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev 0-1 HT 0-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
27.01.2024 Gomel Gomel 3-0 HT 1-0 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev HAZ
28.08.2022 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev 0-4 HT 0-2 Gomel Gomel BLR
17.04.2022 Gomel Gomel 3-1 HT 1-0 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev BLR
20.07.2014 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev 1-1 HT 0-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gomel
1-1
AWAY Dnepr Mogilev
71% Ball Possession 29%
26 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gomel and Dnepr Mogilev shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Gomel carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gomel had 71% of the ball to Dnepr Mogilev's 29%, shots finished 26-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gomel had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Gomel and 0.40 for Dnepr Mogilev.

What was the final score of Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev?

Gomel 1-1 Dnepr Mogilev in the Belarus - Premier League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gomel win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Gomel 56%, draw 27%, Dnepr Mogilev 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gomel), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gomel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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