Bolivar 0-1 Aurora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
70%
-11.0pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.0pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolivar EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Aurora EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
2.00/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.17
+39% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +32%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
21.1 Crosses 11.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolivar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aurora
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.90 xG 1.06
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
291 Passes 234
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.05.2024 Aurora Aurora 1-1 HT 0-1 Bolivar Bolivar BOLİ
15.12.2023 Aurora Aurora 1-0 HT 0-0 Bolivar Bolivar BOLPLK
12.12.2023 Bolivar Bolivar 3-1 HT 1-1 Aurora Aurora BOLPLK
13.08.2023 Aurora Aurora 2-1 HT 1-1 Bolivar Bolivar BOLİ
13.03.2023 Bolivar Bolivar 1-0 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
23.09.2021 Bolivar Bolivar 5-1 HT 3-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolivar
0-1
AWAY Aurora
2.06 xG 1.19
70% Ball Possession 30%
22 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
378 Passes 117
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bolivar vs Aurora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aurora nicked a narrow win over Bolivar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bolivar at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bolivar had 70% of the ball to Aurora's 30%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.06 to 1.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bolivar.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bolivar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bolivar and 1.00 for Aurora.

What was the final score of Bolivar vs Aurora?

Bolivar 0-1 Aurora in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolivar vs Aurora?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolivar win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Bolivar 59%, draw 23%, Aurora 18%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bolivar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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