PEC Zwolle 1-2 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Oct 2024

PEC Zwolle
1-2 HT 0-0
NAC Breda
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
38%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.76
No
59%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
19%
4.41
X/2
12%
7.88
X/X
7%
4.51
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2 EV+ ✗
19%
5.93
2/X
8%
13.75
Value flag · 2/2 at 5.93 — our 19% vs market 12.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.9pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.5pp
37%
Away Win
25%
+12.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.4pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.59/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.59
-14% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
349 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.8 Crosses 16.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5

PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.53 xG 0.88
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
412 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.03.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
19.11.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-2 HT 0-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
19.01.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 1-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOK
15.05.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
15.12.2018 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
20.01.2018 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL

PEC Zwolle 1-2 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
1-2
AWAY NAC Breda
0.83 xG 1.45
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
475 Passes 313
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda
Match summary & frequently asked questions

NAC Breda edged past PEC Zwolle 2-1 away from home in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20 Oct 2024. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 43% and both teams to score was close to even at 41%.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 58% of the ball to NAC Breda's 42%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.83 to 1.45.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle have the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.33 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?

PEC Zwolle 1-2 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 40%, draw 22%, NAC Breda 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
20 Oct 2024
00:00 Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Analysis →
15:30 Heracles vs Ajax Analysis →
15:30 Groningen vs Utrecht Analysis →