Heracles vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Heracles v Ajax — Team-Based Signals
Heracles vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 1-1
Heracles
HOL
3-0
HT 1-0
Heracles
HOL
0-0
HT 0-0
Ajax
HOL
0-2
HT 0-1
Ajax
HOL
5-0
HT 3-0
Heracles
HOL
Heracles 3-4 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics
Ajax edged past Heracles 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Heracles had 32% of the ball to Ajax's 68%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 0.96 to 4.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ajax's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heracles and 3.00 for Ajax.
What was the final score of Heracles vs Ajax?
Heracles 3-4 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Heracles vs Ajax?
Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Heracles 29%, draw 23%, Ajax 48%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.