Heracles 2-4 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Jan 2024

Heracles
2-4 HT 1-1
Ajax
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heracles vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.04
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
48%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.5
No
38%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.86
2-3 Goals
35%
2.05
4-5 Goals
29%
2.57
6+ Goals
17%
5.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.86
1/2
6%
19.1
1/X
5%
15.0
X/1
9%
10.5
X/2
18%
4.16
X/X
8%
6.8
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
24%
1.96
2/X
10%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+7.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
48%
Away Win
57%
-9.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
62%
-0.0pp
38%
BTTS No
38%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 62%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.17/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.31
+18% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.6
15.0 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Heracles vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ajax
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 2.49
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
228 Passes 492
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 44
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
06.02.2022 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
30.10.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
13.02.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
22.11.2020 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 3-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
23.02.2020 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL

Heracles 2-4 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
2-4
AWAY Ajax
1.07 xG 3.82
27% Ball Possession 73%
13 Total Shots 31
7 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 11
207 Passes 699
75% Pass Accuracy 91%
15 Box Touches 65
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax saw off Heracles 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Heracles had 27% of the ball to Ajax's 73%, shots finished 13-31, expected goals 1.07 to 3.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Heracles and 2.33 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Ajax?

Heracles 2-4 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Heracles 29%, draw 23%, Ajax 48%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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