Excelsior 1-1 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Jan 2024

Excelsior
1-1 HT 0-0
Utrecht
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.11
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 28% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.4
1/2
6%
23.85
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
11%
6.57
X/2
19%
4.94
X/X
15%
5.04
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
12%
2.96
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 48%
+9% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.55/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.29
+24% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
20.4 Crosses 19.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Excelsior vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Utrecht
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
275 Passes 376
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 34
17 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 2-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
25.01.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
02.10.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
23.02.2019 Utrecht Utrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
30.11.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 3-3 HT 3-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
04.02.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Excelsior 1-1 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-1
AWAY Utrecht
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
349 Passes 319
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior and Utrecht couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Excelsior had 51% of the ball to Utrecht's 49%, shots finished 9-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Excelsior and 1.50 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Utrecht?

Excelsior 1-1 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 34%, draw 29%, Utrecht 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Utrecht), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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