Matsumoto Yamaga 3-4 Gainare Tottori — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Gainare Tottori EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.50/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.75
-3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
243 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses 16.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Gainare Tottori
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.06.2024 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 0-4 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
05.08.2023 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 2-1 HT 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
02.04.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori JAP3
18.09.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 2-0 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori JAP3
05.06.2022 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
3-4
AWAY Gainare Tottori
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
460 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gainare Tottori nicked a narrow win over Matsumoto Yamaga 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Matsumoto Yamaga at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 61% of the ball to Gainare Tottori's 39%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.60 for Gainare Tottori.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori?

Matsumoto Yamaga 3-4 Gainare Tottori in the Japan - J3 League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 46%, draw 25%, Gainare Tottori 28%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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