Naxxar Lions 1-1 Gzira United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
6.35
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
12%
+7.8pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.2pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-13.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Gzira United EU Bookmakers 75%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.35/2.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.68/0.58
-46% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
243 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naxxar Lions
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Gzira United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-1 HT 0-0 Gzira United Gzira United MLTP
26.09.2023 Gzira United Gzira United 1-1 HT 0-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naxxar Lions
1-1
AWAY Gzira United
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naxxar Lions vs Gzira United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naxxar Lions and Gzira United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Gzira United carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naxxar Lions had 35% of the ball to Gzira United's 65%, shots finished 6-15.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gzira United led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Naxxar Lions and 1.00 for Gzira United.

What was the final score of Naxxar Lions vs Gzira United?

Naxxar Lions 1-1 Gzira United in the Malta - Premier League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naxxar Lions vs Gzira United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gzira United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Naxxar Lions 20%, draw 24%, Gzira United 56%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gzira United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gzira United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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