Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 29% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.45
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
16%
4.31
X/2
7%
8.41
X/X
13%
4.72
2/1
15%
24.45
2/2
8%
6.31
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
50%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -7%
1.74/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.41
+10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
403 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 69%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.7 Crosses 14.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.50 xG 0.97
57% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
396 Passes 276
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
12.11.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
26.02.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
13.08.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-3 HT 1-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.02.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-2 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
07.08.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
3-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
2.09 xG 0.77
58% Ball Possession 42%
22 Total Shots 13
11 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 8
471 Passes 290
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 28
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze got the better of Stal Mielec 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gornik Zabrze as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 58% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 42%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 2.09 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.17 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?

Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 51%, draw 28%, Stal Mielec 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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