Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.9
Over 2.5
39%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.5
6+ Goals
8%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 32% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.31
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
11%
4.11
X/2
11%
9.0
X/X
12%
4.87
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
11%
6.92
2/X
9%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
49%
+11.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
51%
-11.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +17%
1.92/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.51
+14% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 73%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.2 Crosses 13.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.29 xG 1.11
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
271 Passes 387
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 HT 2-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
12.11.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
05.03.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
09.11.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
31.08.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.04.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-2 HT 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
1-0
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.08 xG 0.57
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
400 Passes 278
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 4
34 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa squeezed past Pogon Szczecin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 58% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 42%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.08 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.50 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 44%, draw 27%, Pogon Szczecin 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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