Arda Kardzhali 0-1 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 20 Oct 2025

📅20/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-6.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.8pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.85/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.04
+7% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -26%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2025 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-4 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
25.10.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-1 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
0-1
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia edged past Arda Kardzhali 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Arda Kardzhali carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 61% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 39%, shots finished 19-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.50 for Septemvri Sofia.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?

Arda Kardzhali 0-1 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 20/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 57%, draw 23%, Septemvri Sofia 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
20 Oct 2025
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