Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-9.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 19%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.55/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.16/2.16
-9% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -81% / -33%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
2-1
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali nicked a narrow win over Septemvri Sofia 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arda Kardzhali as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 53% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 47%, shots finished 13-4.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?

Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 53%, draw 23%, Septemvri Sofia 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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