Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.51
Over 2.5
35%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
22%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
50%
-10.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+9.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.5pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.8pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 24%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
0.42/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.67
-66% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +67%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
26.09.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1-0
AWAY Cherno More Varna
42% Ball Possession 58%
3 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv nicked a narrow win over Cherno More Varna 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Botev Plovdiv found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 42% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 58%, shots finished 3-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 0.50 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 39%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botev Plovdiv), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
25 Oct 2024
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