Motherwell 1-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
6+ Goals
12%
15.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.89
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
11%
4.68
X/2
12%
7.12
X/X
11%
4.55
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
11%
5.23
2/X
10%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
1.49/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.32
+5% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 71%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
22.7 Crosses 21.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.36 xG 0.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
197 Passes 208
60% Pass Accuracy 62%
21 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKLK
03.02.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
04.11.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
26.08.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
06.05.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
25.02.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
1-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.66 xG 1.03
35% Ball Possession 65%
4 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
170 Passes 381
63% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell and Kilmarnock shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Motherwell at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Motherwell had 35% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 65%, shots finished 4-13, expected goals 0.66 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motherwell had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motherwell and 0.67 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Motherwell 1-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 42%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motherwell), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motherwell) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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