Motherwell 1-0 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - League Cup, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.8
Over 2.5
39%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.81
No
59%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 32% vs market 27.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.0pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
3.80/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
+135% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -55%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
234 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 0.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
219 Passes 204
62% Pass Accuracy 62%
21 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
04.11.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
26.08.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
06.05.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
25.02.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
23.12.2022 Motherwell Motherwell 2-2 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell edged past Kilmarnock 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motherwell as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motherwell had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Motherwell and 1.00 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Motherwell 1-0 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - League Cup on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 41%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motherwell), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motherwell) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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