Adelaide United 3-3 Sydney — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 20 Dec 2024

Adelaide United
3-3 HT 2-1
Sydney
📅20/12/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Adelaide United vs Sydney Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.98
Over 2.5
53%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.32
No
43%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.45
2-3 Goals
40%
2.22
4-5 Goals
24%
2.35
6+ Goals
14%
4.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.73
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
13%
5.53
X/2
11%
7.45
X/X
13%
6.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
20.05
2/2
16%
4.1
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.05 — our 7% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
30%
+17.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
70%
-17.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
72%
-14.2pp
43%
BTTS No
28%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Sydney — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
2.04/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.59
+6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
24.6 Crosses 18.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.4

Adelaide United vs Sydney Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sydney
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.30 xG 2.05
45% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
315 Passes 393
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 35
15 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Sydney Sydney 2-1 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
13.01.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-3 HT 3-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
11.11.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-5 HT 0-4 Sydney Sydney AVUS
07.04.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 0-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
23.10.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-2 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
12.04.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-3 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Adelaide United 3-3 Sydney — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
3-3
AWAY Sydney
2.94 xG 2.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
346 Passes 444
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
38 Box Touches 40
10 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Sydney
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United and Sydney couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United had 44% of the ball to Sydney's 56%, shots finished 15-23, expected goals 2.94 to 2.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Adelaide United and 2.50 for Sydney.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Sydney?

Adelaide United 3-3 Sydney in the Australia - A-League on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Sydney?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 40%, draw 27%, Sydney 33%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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